War-torn Burma Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders imprisoned and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it took control in a coup, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is seeking to legitimise and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the costly stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful assembly," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been prosecuted for disrupting or opposing the polls under a recently enacted legislation which imposes harsh penalties, including the death penalty.

Film director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Pressure

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats urging people to boycott the polls.

The military has been engaged on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year after sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge logistical challenge for holding an election.

A Limited Vote

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the next month in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed not secure enough. Results are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in exile.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the EU legislature, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has urged political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a military representative told a briefing last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "the path to democracy".