Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
